Tag Archive: bond yields


Rates Lift Off on Trade Truce Hopes

Bond yields erupted Friday for the biggest two-day gain since 2011. Canada’s 5-year yield—which is closely watched for its influence on fixed mortgage rates—closed at its highest point since July. This comes after the Trumpinator heralded a potential U.S./China trade truce. The trade war, now a year and a half old, has pounded mortgage rates on the assumption that weaker...

Fed Cuts. Canadian Rates Barely Move

Canadian mortgage rates follow U.S. rates like spring follows winter. So today’s U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut is most relevant indeed. The Fed chopped the floor for its key target rate by 25 bps today to 1.75%—the same as the Bank of Canada. It’s the second cut in 49 days, but only the second cut since 2008. As usual, the...

RateWatch: Bond Yields Going Vertical

Some people think we’re in a bond market bubble. If that’s true, and we’re not declaring it is, the last four days are kinda what you get when a bubble pops. Bond investors are in a momentary state of panic. Canada’s bellwether 5-year government yield has catapulted 31 basis points in just four trading days. The last time that happened...

Foreigners Sway Canadian Mortgage Rates

Do you care if some investor in China or France dumps Canadian bonds? Many would answer, no. But when foreign demand for Canadian bonds drops, other things equal, bond prices drop. And given bonds and yields (interest rates) move inversely, and given fixed mortgages are partially funded in the bond market, when overseas demand for Canadian bonds falls, it usually...

Rate Nuggets: Yields Slow the Descent in Fixed Rates

Bond yields have found at least a near-term bottom after four-and-a-half months of declines. That means Canadian fixed mortgage rates may also have found a bottom…for now. Here’s a quick look at the lowest effective 5-year fixed rates, and how far they’ve fallen since the peak last fall: Insured: 2.79% -44 bps Insurable (80% LTV or less): 2.93% -40 bps Uninsured:...

Rate Nuggets: Even Mortgage Rates are Inverting

Quick news nuggets from Canada’s mortgage rate market: Not only has the yield curve inverted, but in some cases the mortgage rate curve has inverted. Among uninsured mortgages available in multiple provinces, for example, the best 5-year fixed rate is now below the best variable rate. There’s still tremendous value in insured variable rates—now effectively as low as 2.54% in some provinces. Markets are...

Rates Slip Further

Canadian interest rates are still sliding. On Monday, Canada’s 5-year bond yield—which drives fixed mortgage rates—closed in the 1.50% range, something it hasn’t done since November 2017. Dozens of lenders have trimmed fixed rates in recent days as yields keep tumbling. And big banks are not excepted. With skidding home sales, weakening property values and mortgage growth near multi-decade lows, the...

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Nearing the End

No one thought the Bank of Canada would move rates today. What observers were looking for was a hint that we may be closer to the end of rate hikes than Governor Poloz has been letting on. Here’s what we heard from the BoC on that point, among other things: Rate Decision: Canada’s key interest rate remains at 1.75% Prime...

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Doves Fight the Hawk

The market knew we wouldn’t get a rate hike today. Instead, it was scouring the Bank of Canada’s messaging for guidance on where rates are headed. And the market found it. The bank’s statement this morning reinforced that it expects higher rates, but it will take longer than they thought. Here’s more on the BoC’s latest decision, and what it...

Mortgage Rates & Oligopoly Costs

Five-year Canadian yields are down 60 basis points in two months. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rates are down a measly 4 basis points.* Meanwhile south of the border, where they have this thing called mortgage competition, 5-year yields are down 54 bps and average 5-year fixed rates have fallen 16 bps so far. Average rates on the most popular U.S....