There’s a widening chasm between what the Bank of Canada is telling Canadians about inflation and what corporate leaders expect. The following chart ain’t pretty, and it contrasts starkly with the BoC’s inflation outlook. This graph from CFIB shows that businesses now plan to boost prices by 4.7% in the next 12 months. That is not only 135% more than...
. One truth in economics is that mortgage rates typically follow inflation expectations, at least over time. That eventually poses a problem for borrowers, particularly after consumer prices take flight, like they have this year. U.S. core inflation, for example, recently jumped the most in four decades, 0.9% on a monthly basis. That “was well above what I and outside...
If you’ve got a hankering for a mortgage with maximum rate assurance, none beats the 10-year fixed. But once Canada rounds the corner on its economic recovery, 10-year rates could climb faster than other mortgage rates. The reason: 10-year terms reflect longer-term economic expectations than 5-year terms, for example. As a result, they often react more to changes in the...
—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 13— If you like definitive-sounding rate calls, here’s one: “The 2020 recession AND the 40-year bond rally are over,” declares Bank of America. Positive economic data surprises, declining uncertainty post-U.S. election and “massive monetary and fiscal policy support” will “set the stage” for higher bond yields, the bank stated in a report on Tuesday. If true,...
“We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem That comment from Canada’s monetary kahuna, Tiff Macklem, put a glimmer of hope in the eyes of variable-rate mortgagors this week. By leaving the door open to sub-zero rates, even if just a crack,...
Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound [intended to be 0.25%] until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”...
—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 8— One of the most important factors determining your success with a mortgage is the rate, relative to other rates you could have chosen. Over the long run and other things equal: The higher your rate relative to other rate options, the worse your odds of success. The lower your rate relative to other rate options,...
—The Mortgage Report: Aug. 7— Rate Complacency When you survey people about the direction of interest rates, they consistently expect “that rates will rise,” says Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC) in a new report. That thinking is partly why 5-year fixed rates are so popular. But MPC’s recent survey indicates “that the expected amount of increase might be the smallest we’ve...
—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— It Might as Well Have: On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada threw caution to the wind and changed its playbook. It pledged not to hike rates until “the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The significance of that statement is now sinking in and here’s why. Normally, the Bank of Canada doesn’t wait for...
Quick Summary Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “…The Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.” BoC on the Economy: “The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating...
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