Tag Archive: mortgage rate outlook


BoC Decision: More Impact on 5-year Rates Than Prime Rate

Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection,...

Record-Low Fixed Rates May Depend on the BoC

—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 21— Canada’s budget deficit will end 2020 “near 20% of GDP,” according to the IMF. “That represents the fourth-highest projected deficit in the world, after Libya, Aruba and the Maldives,” says Bloomberg News. With that degree of fiscal hemorrhaging in Ottawa, bond yields (and hence fixed mortgage rates) would jump sooner were it not for Bank...

“This Time is for Real,” Says BofA

—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 13— If you like definitive-sounding rate calls, here’s one: “The 2020 recession AND the 40-year bond rally are over,” declares Bank of America. Positive economic data surprises, declining uncertainty post-U.S. election and “massive monetary and fiscal policy support” will “set the stage” for higher bond yields, the bank stated in a report on Tuesday. If true,...

The Chance of Negative Rates Remains

“We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem That comment from Canada’s monetary kahuna, Tiff Macklem, put a glimmer of hope in the eyes of variable-rate mortgagors this week. By leaving the door open to sub-zero rates, even if just a crack,...

Don’t Time Mortgage Rates. How to Time Mortgage Rates

Lest you think too many mimosas at Sunday brunch impacted our headline choices today, fear not. As long-time readers can attest, we don’t hype interest rate timing around here. Guessing rate direction beyond the short term can be like guessing solar flare intensity. It ain’t easy. Professional economists with big fat salaries botch rate predictions for a living. Yet, many...

One-Year Mortgages Edge Closer to 1%

Not One and Done If you’re going to gamble on a short-term rate, you could do a lot worse than 1.29%. On a contract rate basis, that’s the lowest fixed mortgage rate Canada has ever seen. And it’s probably not done dropping yet. This latest one-year offer is available in select provinces and applies to high-ratio and insurable mortgages up...

Throne Speech Giveaway Portends Faster Recovery in Rates

The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.—John Maynard Keynes (1937) Canada’s Liberal government ripped a page out of Keynes’ playbook Wednesday, promising to use “whatever fiscal firepower is needed” to rebuild the economy and recover “one million jobs.” That includes multi-billion-dollar-price-tag initiatives like extending the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy through summer 2021, making...

The Bank of Canada Controls Your Mortgage Rate

Bond yields heavily influence what people pay for a mortgage. In general, the more government bond-buying there is, the lower fixed mortgage rates go. Explainer: Bond prices and bond rates (yields) always move inversely. Fixed mortgage rates are benchmarked against bond yields. Governments around the world are manipulating mortgage rates by buying their nations’ own debt. Take the U.S. Federal...