Tag Archive: mortgage rate outlook


5-year Fixed Rates Climb to 5-month High

Canada’s best 5-year fixed rates are now north of 1.50% — for the first time since September. The lowest 5-year fixed rate in the nation is at 1.59% (for high-ratio mortgages in Ontario only). This rate may disappear this week, given it is priced aggressively under the market considering lender funding costs. On the uninsured side, HSBC’s fixed-rate hikes on...

The Fed Signals No Early Rate Tightening

The Mortgage Report: Mar. 17 Fed boss Jerome Powell pledged Wednesday that he would not hike U.S. interest rates “preemptively based on forecasts.” In saying that, the Fed once again left U.S. rates unchanged. But more importantly, it left its general rate outlook unchanged, meaning a consensus of its members still project no Fed rate increases through 2023. If history...

A Slightly Rosier BoC Keeps Rates Rock-Bottom

In brief Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until first-half 2022 BoC’s Headline Quote: “While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support.” BoC on the Economy: “GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now...

One Year After Yields Crashed

The Mortgage Report: March 8 It was one year ago that Canada’s 5-year yield plunged to an all-time low of 0.27%. Since then, it has more than tripled — and the bond market hasn’t taken a breather. Investors keep dumping bonds and driving up yields. They fear things like: inflation excessive government borrowing and stimulus the end of government bond-buying...

Latest From the Rate Trenches…

Monday was a reprieve from surging rates in the bond market. Canada’s 5-year swap rate, a good lead indicator of fixed mortgage pricing, fell back towards earth after February’s parabolic surge. So far, four of the Big 6 banks have boosted fixed rates following that leap in funding costs. Here are some of the big names that jacked up fixed...

Going, Going…

More banks raised their internal mortgage pricing this weekend, including Scotiabank. (See: Big Bank Mortgage Rates) Its move followed TD’s fixed-rate hike on Friday. Scotia, the largest bank in the mortgage broker channel, boosted multiple fixed rates, but actually lowered its variable rates. That seems to be the playbook now as banks try to entice people to float their mortgages...

Canadian Rates Go Vertical

If you’ve never seen B.C.’s Squamish Chief, it’s an imposing mass of sheer cliff. And Canadian interest rates look like they’re climbing it. The 5-year government yield, which leads fixed mortgage rates, is going straight up. It hasn’t moved this much within a nine-day span in a decade (November 2010, based on closing prices). At 0.94%, it’s now doubled since...

Tiff Talk

If you have faith in Canada’s top banker, Bank of Canada chief Tiff Macklem, you needn’t worry about prime rate rising in 2021. Here’s what he said in a speech on Tuesday:‎With a complete recovery still a long way off, monetary policy will need to provide stimulus for a considerable period. We have committed to keeping our policy interest rate...

Canadian Mortgage Rates Turn the Corner

People hear the Bank of Canada predicting no rate increases until 2023 and take that as gospel. Maybe they shouldn’t. The Bank of Canada’s key overnight rate—which more directly impacts floating-rate mortgages—doesn’t constrain fixed mortgage rates in the same way. The latter are driven more by what the bond market thinks the Bank of Canada (and the economy) will do...

Bond Rates, Highest Since April

A scattering of lenders are starting to warn of impending rate increases. No surprise—given Canada’s 5-year bond yield, which drives fixed mortgage rates, hit a new relative high on Thursday. At 0.60%, it’s now the highest it’s been since April 9, 2020. When the 5-year yield was last at these levels, your typical discretionary 5-year fixed rate at a Big...