There’s a widening chasm between what the Bank of Canada is telling Canadians about inflation and what corporate leaders expect. The following chart ain’t pretty, and it contrasts starkly with the BoC’s inflation outlook. This graph from CFIB shows that businesses now plan to boost prices by 4.7% in the next 12 months. That is not only 135% more than...
The Mortgage Report: Mar. 17 Fed boss Jerome Powell pledged Wednesday that he would not hike U.S. interest rates “preemptively based on forecasts.” In saying that, the Fed once again left U.S. rates unchanged. But more importantly, it left its general rate outlook unchanged, meaning a consensus of its members still project no Fed rate increases through 2023. If history...
In brief Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until first-half 2022 BoC’s Headline Quote: “While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support.” BoC on the Economy: “GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now...
The Mortgage Report: March 8 It was one year ago that Canada’s 5-year yield plunged to an all-time low of 0.27%. Since then, it has more than tripled — and the bond market hasn’t taken a breather. Investors keep dumping bonds and driving up yields. They fear things like: inflation excessive government borrowing and stimulus the end of government bond-buying...
The entire mortgage market was waiting, and now, after 10 months, it finally happened. Canada’s 5-year bond yield (which influences fixed mortgage rates) broke through major resistance, resistance that goes all the way back to April of last year. It’s a signal that better economic times lie ahead. A sign that inflation should no longer be just an afterthought. A...
5-year fixed mortgage rates tend to shadow 5-year government yields. And for most of nine months, the 5-year yield has been locked in a 21-basis-point range, a range so tight it was practically inconceivable prior to COVID. And, while no one has ever seen a range like this in our lifetimes, ultimately the 5-year yield will break out. When that...
Tangerine has ratcheted up its competitiveness. For non-default insured mortgages, it is suddenly the national leader on four fixed terms: 2-year fixed at 1.64% 3-year fixed at 1.59% (lowest refi rate in the country) 4-year fixed at 1.69%, and 10-year fixed at 2.14%. These are exceptional rates for uninsured mortgages (which include refinances and purchases over $1 million), particularly if...
If you’ve got a hankering for a mortgage with maximum rate assurance, none beats the 10-year fixed. But once Canada rounds the corner on its economic recovery, 10-year rates could climb faster than other mortgage rates. The reason: 10-year terms reflect longer-term economic expectations than 5-year terms, for example. As a result, they often react more to changes in the...
“What’s the lowest rate?” is one of those questions you can’t answer with one number. There are just too many factors that determine the rate someone pays. You have to ask more questions, like: How much equity do you have? Are you purchasing a home, refinancing, or just switching lenders? What term do you prefer? What province are you in?...
The Mortgage Report: Jan. 6, 2021 U.S. 5-year yields leaped to a 7-week high on Wednesday as Democrats took control of all three houses of government, thanks to their historic win in Georgia. Canada’s 5-year yield rose in sympathy by a less notable 2 bps, but economists nonetheless expect more of an incline in rates this year. The reason: Democrats...
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