Tag Archive: economic outlook


The Fed Signals No Early Rate Tightening

The Mortgage Report: Mar. 17 Fed boss Jerome Powell pledged Wednesday that he would not hike U.S. interest rates “preemptively based on forecasts.” In saying that, the Fed once again left U.S. rates unchanged. But more importantly, it left its general rate outlook unchanged, meaning a consensus of its members still project no Fed rate increases through 2023. If history...

A Slightly Rosier BoC Keeps Rates Rock-Bottom

In brief Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until first-half 2022 BoC’s Headline Quote: “While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support.” BoC on the Economy: “GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now...

One Year After Yields Crashed

The Mortgage Report: March 8 It was one year ago that Canada’s 5-year yield plunged to an all-time low of 0.27%. Since then, it has more than tripled — and the bond market hasn’t taken a breather. Investors keep dumping bonds and driving up yields. They fear things like: inflation excessive government borrowing and stimulus the end of government bond-buying...

Fixed Rate Alert

The entire mortgage market was waiting, and now, after 10 months, it finally happened. Canada’s 5-year bond yield (which influences fixed mortgage rates) broke through major resistance, resistance that goes all the way back to April of last year. It’s a signal that better economic times lie ahead. A sign that inflation should no longer be just an afterthought. A...

A Yield Breakout is Forthcoming…Wait for It

5-year fixed mortgage rates tend to shadow 5-year government yields. And for most of nine months, the 5-year yield has been locked in a 21-basis-point range, a range so tight it was practically inconceivable prior to COVID. And, while no one has ever seen a range like this in our lifetimes, ultimately the 5-year yield will break out. When that...

Tangerine Now Leads the Uninsured Mortgage Market on Several Rates

Tangerine has ratcheted up its competitiveness. For non-default insured mortgages, it is suddenly the national leader on four fixed terms: 2-year fixed at 1.64% 3-year fixed at 1.59% (lowest refi rate in the country) 4-year fixed at 1.69%, and 10-year fixed at 2.14%. These are exceptional rates for uninsured mortgages (which include refinances and purchases over $1 million), particularly if...

10-year Fixed Rates Could Rebound Quicker

If you’ve got a hankering for a mortgage with maximum rate assurance, none beats the 10-year fixed. But once Canada rounds the corner on its economic recovery, 10-year rates could climb faster than other mortgage rates. The reason: 10-year terms reflect longer-term economic expectations than 5-year terms, for example. As a result, they often react more to changes in the...

New Tool for Monitoring Mortgage Rates

“What’s the lowest rate?” is one of those questions you can’t answer with one number. There are just too many factors that determine the rate someone pays. You have to ask more questions, like: How much equity do you have? Are you purchasing a home, refinancing, or just switching lenders? What term do you prefer? What province are you in?...

Wednesday’s Historic Events Nudge Rates Higher

The Mortgage Report: Jan. 6, 2021 U.S. 5-year yields leaped to a 7-week high on Wednesday as Democrats took control of all three houses of government, thanks to their historic win in Georgia. Canada’s 5-year yield rose in sympathy by a less notable 2 bps, but economists nonetheless expect more of an incline in rates this year. The reason: Democrats...

New Year, New Optimism, New Rate Risk

The Mortgage Report: Jan. 4, 2021 2020 was a year that took pleasure in humiliating forecasters. From the remarkable bounce in housing, to the resilience of mortgage volumes, to the devastation in big-city rental markets, to the homeowner exodus from urban cores to the lows of contract mortgage rates, to the persistence of high qualifying rates — 2020 made the...