Tag Archive: economic outlook


“This Time is for Real,” Says BofA

—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 13— If you like definitive-sounding rate calls, here’s one: “The 2020 recession AND the 40-year bond rally are over,” declares Bank of America. Positive economic data surprises, declining uncertainty post-U.S. election and “massive monetary and fiscal policy support” will “set the stage” for higher bond yields, the bank stated in a report on Tuesday. If true,...

Refi Ahead of Condo Trouble?

—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 7— Toronto condo listings have exploded 215% to a record high, reports Bloomberg. And they’re projected to be even higher in October, according to HouseSigma. Driving that surprising number: skittish investors (many with negative cash flow given surging rental listings and a 14% y/y drop in rents) “elevator phobia” people coming off mortgage deferrals relatively higher...

Prepayment Envy

—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 28— Ever wonder who’s got the most generous prepayment privileges in Canada on a closed mortgage? So did we, so we just looked in our database of 3,000+ rates to find out. It turns out that credit unions rule the roost when it comes to annual lump-sum prepayment allowances. The leaders: 30% per year: Casera Credit...

One-Year Mortgages Edge Closer to 1%

Not One and Done If you’re going to gamble on a short-term rate, you could do a lot worse than 1.29%. On a contract rate basis, that’s the lowest fixed mortgage rate Canada has ever seen. And it’s probably not done dropping yet. This latest one-year offer is available in select provinces and applies to high-ratio and insurable mortgages up...

Finally, a Major Bank Openly Promotes a Sub-2% Five-year Fixed

—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 10— CIBC has dropped the following special fixed rates: 5yr (high-ratio): 2.07% to 1.97% 5yr (uninsured): 2.24% to 2.14% 7yr: 2.71% to 2.61% It’s the first time ever that a Big 6 Canadian bank has widely and openly advertised a 5-year fixed rate under 2%, albeit it’s only on default-insured mortgages. This development is more symbolic...

Bank of Canada Re-Signals a Long Road to Recovery

Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound [intended to be 0.25%] until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”...

Mortgage Rate Differentials: Unusually Narrow

—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 8— One of the most important factors determining your success with a mortgage is the rate, relative to other rates you could have chosen. Over the long run and other things equal: The higher your rate relative to other rate options, the worse your odds of success. The lower your rate relative to other rate options,...

Mortgage Deferrers are Weaker Borrowers: But How Much Weaker?

Six hundred thousand Canadians weren’t paying their mortgages on July 31. They were getting by with the help of lenders who agreed to postpone their payments. Not long from now, lenders are going to cut off most of those payment deferrals. The housing risk this poses was the topic of my latest Globe column, which estimated that up to 61,000...

The Striking Rate/Stock Divergence Continues

—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 2— Here’s something that baffles even experienced financial professionals. The U.S. stock market is exploding to all-time highs while bond yields trudge near record lows. It’s a question investors are asking all the time: are stocks signalling a growth recovery that will lift yields higher? The mortgage relevance is clear: if U.S. yields pop, so do...

Could 5-Year Fixed Rates Sink to 1.49%?

—The Mortgage Report: Aug. 25— Yes. The Question is: When? Most readers know that fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields. But it’s bond yields south of the border that are particularly influential for Canadian mortgage rates — given U.S. influence on our economy. To get to 1.49% on discounted 5-year fixed rates, we need a Canadian 5-year bond yield near...