Categories for Bank of Canada

Save for 4,635 Days. Beat the Stress Test

Just failed the mortgage stress test and feeling down? Have no fear, a bigger down payment will get you to the mortgage promised land. By putting down more, you’ll lower your debt ratio and be passing the stress test before you know it…as long as you don’t expect a mortgage before 2031. That’s how long stress test flunkies would have...

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Long Pause

The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave rates alone was far from its most important message today. More on that to follow, but first, here’s a quick take on what the BoC said this morning: Rate Decision: It left Canada’s key interest rate at 1.75% Prime Rate: Prime rate remains at 3.95% Market Rate Forecast: At least one rate cut by...

Rates Slip Further

Canadian interest rates are still sliding. On Monday, Canada’s 5-year bond yield—which drives fixed mortgage rates—closed in the 1.50% range, something it hasn’t done since November 2017. Dozens of lenders have trimmed fixed rates in recent days as yields keep tumbling. And big banks are not excepted. With skidding home sales, weakening property values and mortgage growth near multi-decade lows, the...

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Nearing the End

No one thought the Bank of Canada would move rates today. What observers were looking for was a hint that we may be closer to the end of rate hikes than Governor Poloz has been letting on. Here’s what we heard from the BoC on that point, among other things: Rate Decision: Canada’s key interest rate remains at 1.75% Prime...

Analyzing Poloz’s Latest Rate Clues

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz dropped some notable rate-related nuggets in a speech Thursday. Below we ponder the implications of those comments for mortgagors. Here’s what Poloz said: ****** “Inflation expectations have become firmly anchored on our 2 percent target…My children will never pay anything like the kind of interest rates I have paid in my lifetime.” Translation for...

Mortgage Rates Under 3% Shine…If Neutral is 2%

BMO Capital Markets has taken a “scalpel to [its] Canadian rate forecast,” as it describes it. The company now projects just one Bank of Canada rate increase in all of 2019. By comparison, financial traders peg the odds of a rate hike this year at just 49%. That’s according to implied probabilities in the bond market, as tracked by Reuters. BMO is...

Rate Hikes With This Growth? For Real?

The Bank of Canada maintains that rates are going higher. Meanwhile, it just slashed Canada’s 2019 growth forecast by a not-so-paltry 0.40 percentage points. Does that strike anyone as a mite bit inconsistent? The Bank is now calling for just a 1.7% GDP gain this year. That’s pretty darned feeble. Bonsai trees and glaciers grow faster than 1.7% a year....

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Doves Fight the Hawk

The market knew we wouldn’t get a rate hike today. Instead, it was scouring the Bank of Canada’s messaging for guidance on where rates are headed. And the market found it. The bank’s statement this morning reinforced that it expects higher rates, but it will take longer than they thought. Here’s more on the BoC’s latest decision, and what it...

Bond Yield Massacre

The deluge in yields continues. Canada’s benchmark 5-year yield just hit its lowest point since June. The last time we saw this kind of carnage was January 2015. Back then, the Bank of Canada made emergency rate cuts to stave off the oil crisis. Implied odds are slim that the bank will reverse course and lower its key rate near-term. But...

Bank of Canada: Steady as She Goes?

Fears of a slowing economy take rate hikes off the table, and such concerns definitely took a hike off the table today. Canada’s main rate setter, the Bank of Canada, did what most predicted and left rates as-is at this morning’s rate meeting. But the outlook did change. Here’s more on the BoC’s latest decision, and what it means to...