Tag Archive: rate research


Canada Will See Higher Rates Before Lower Rates: Scotia

The talk of the market this month is how traders are pricing in a decelerating economy and lower interest rates — to which Scotiabank Economics replies, think again. December’s selloffs in oil and equities and incessant chatter about yield curve inversion got many thinking we’re headed towards a rate cut by 2020. But in a recent report, Scotia challenged that...

Rate Hikes With This Growth? For Real?

The Bank of Canada maintains that rates are going higher. Meanwhile, it just slashed Canada’s 2019 growth forecast by a not-so-paltry 0.40 percentage points. Does that strike anyone as a mite bit inconsistent? The Bank is now calling for just a 1.7% GDP gain this year. That’s pretty darned feeble. Bonsai trees and glaciers grow faster than 1.7% a year....

Mortgage Growth Ain’t What it Used To Be

And that’s as the government intended. Albeit, the deceleration may be less pronounced than some might expect, given all the recent headlines about this year’s real estate slowdown and mortgage rule tightening. Here are fresh new mortgage stats from CMHC and Equifax (as of second quarter of 2018): Number of active mortgages: 5.98 million This number essentially stayed the same...

The Odd Spike in Insured Variable-Rate Mortgages

Something unusual has happened in the high-ratio mortgage world. Homebuyers with less than 20% equity are gravitating to floating-rates — more than ever in recent history. New data from the country’s top default insurer (CMHC) shows that almost a third of transactionally insured borrowers (31.3%) chose a variable- or adjustable-rate mortgage from July 1 to September 30. Jargon-Buster: “Transactionally insured” just...

Waiting for a Rate Drop?

So are a lot of other people. So far, all we’ve gotten is a dozen large or mid-sized lenders hiking 5-year fixed rates over the past week or so. Meanwhile, the 5-year swap yield (one of the best leading indicators for fixed mortgage rates) is back down to levels it saw six months ago. Back then (in May), the best...

Confusing Data on Online Rate Shopping

There’s still way too much inefficiency in the mortgage research process. That is, if we’re to believe the latest CMHC data. Three out of four homebuyers used websites to gather mortgage-related information, says Canada’s housing agency. But, among those, only 20% of first-time buyers, 24% of repeat buyers and 23% of renewers used “interest rate comparison” websites. It’s bad enough...

Affordability Crisis? Not Yet, RBC

“RBC’s affordability measure hasn’t been this bad since 1990.”—RBC Economics That’s according to RBC’s “Housing Trends and Affordability” report, which is making headlines across the country as we speak. But if you’re house hunting and terrified you won’t get a mortgage, don’t soil your trousers just yet. There’s a devil in RBC’s details. It’s the mortgage rates they assume in...

A “New Era” for Mortgage Rates

“Last year marked the beginning of a new era for Canadian households,” said CIBC Economics on Thursday. “For the first time since the early 1990s, interest rates on five-year Government of Canada bonds were higher than they were five years before.” The bank adds, “With that trend set to continue, we estimate that 70% of households with five-year fixed rate mortgages...

Rates Dominate the Consumer Mindset

Your mortgage rate isn’t everything, unless you’re in the majority of Canadians. A full 60% of those polled said getting the lowest rate possible is the “only thing that matters” when it comes to picking the best mortgage, CIBC found in a recent survey. That mindset is something lenders grapple with daily while trying to differentiate themselves. And with the...

Canadians Can’t Predict Interest Rates. But They Try.

Two-thirds of consumers expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months, according to a new report from Mortgage Professionals Canada. Only a measly 2% expect rates to fall. But that’s not as surprising as it seems. There is a built-in bias towards higher rates and there has been for years. “Through the entire history of this question, Canadians...